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Julie Rayzor ~ Romance, Adventure, Zombies the Thriller Novel is NOW available in ebooks and paperback!
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Poker shows up in books, it's mainstream, exciting, and people like to watch
risk-takers... Here's my take on Poker and why you won't see me writing about it
in my novels (unless I do).
Poker is a game of strategy played 8 to 10
hours a day, everyday in casinos, by people who have no concept of tactics or
place no value on money and usually BOTH. We call these people donkeys. Donkeys
are, as I see it, the primary problem with playing poker.
Donkeys are
generally retired or working from their "casino office", extremely wealthy, or
blowing their inheritance. These people, in general, do not value money. I was
working at Bally's Casino in Vegas around 3:30am as a Software Manager in charge
of technical support for a casino equipment supplier when I saw someone who was
refered to as the former CEO of WorldCom (You know that giant telecom company
worth billions of dollars that went bust?) He had a roulette table to himself
and dozens upon dozens of stacks of chips (30 and 40 chips tall) in front of him
and a dozen tall stacks on the table being bet. He bet a dozen tall stacks every
spin of the wheel. I was told he had been standing there all day and all night.
Three hours later I returned to Bally's Casino and he was still there playing
the same table. The hieght of his chip-stacks had dropped from 40 to 20. The
number of stacks of chips dropped in half. He was losing a couple percent of his
money on average with every spin. He did not value his money and these are the
same type of people who play poker (Maybe not that much money, but the same
category). They can literally lose $1000 a day, every single day, and it effects
their life in no way.
Can you afford to lose $1000 a day as a writer,
artist, manager, engineer, or even retired? I doubt it.
The house rake on
a 1-2 NL Holdem table is generally 10% or about 4 or 5 dollars max, with another
dollar taken from each pot for the progressives. That's $6 out of each pot gone.
So if an average pot size is $40 (and it may be slightly more or less), then you
lose $4 and $1 more for a total win of $35, minus your investment, which is
typically 33% to 50% (1 or 2 other players who call everything all the time or
he/she/they are actually on a hand.) So out of the original $40 you put in $13
to $20. Let's say $17. Therefore 35 minus 17 = $18. Now lets consider that you
are forced to limp with the blinds and most of the time you get nothing for
cards and are in early position. Generally, you will lose in BB/SB positions.
That's $3 per round you lost. If you get winning cards, which actually only
occurs on average once every two rotations of the table, you still paid in $3
(more likely six but I'm going easy on you in this scenario.) $18 - 3 = $15. You
won a little less than double your money.
If you won double your money
(which you won't on avergae) then your odds are 1 in 2 to win, which means you
MUST win every other pot that you play (approximately).
Is your game
that good? Do you win every other pot? I doubt it.
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Let's talk about the
rake. 10% goes to the house. That means 10% of your money going into the pot
goes to the casino and 10% of your opponents money goes to the casino. You lose
10% of your money every single hand you play. Basic rules tell us that average
starting hands only run about 60% in your favor pre-flop. Some are 70%, but not
usually more than that. You are essentially flipping a coin (50/50, 60/40) in a
game that takes away 10% from your winnings. Blackjack has better odds than
that. 48% coin flip at 100% payback is far better than a 50/50 chance of winning
90% of the pot (after rake).
If the buy in is $200 and the average pot
size is $50, with a rake of about $5, and you go heads-up, you will have wagered
$200 within 8 hands that you see the flop.
Post-flop your odds can
significantly decrease. You have no idea if someone flopped a set with pocket 3s
and that your AA or KK is no good anymore. So you check and fold a big bet, or
maybe the guy checks and you get to see another card, and then you fold a big
bet or call a small bet? That coin is in the air!
Maybe you flopped two
pair and bet the pot and a guy on a drawing hand calls. The turn comes and it's
a rag so you bet the pot again and he calls. His odds of hitting his straight or
flush are about 17% but he's calling bets that cost him 50% of the pot! Yes, he
will lose 4 out of 5 times, except today - today he hits his straight on the
river (and tomorrow too, and the day after that he's gone but another donkey is
sitting in his seat.) My point is this happens over and over again all day long. When you lose, you go home broke. When the donkey loses, he pulls another $200
out of his pocket. When you win, you doubled your money, but you've lost so much
from all the other hands that you can't recover.
Or MAYBE the dealer is a donkey who pushes the pot to the guy with King-high and takes your pair of eights and mucks them because in his warped world four-to-an-inside-straight beats a pair of eights. Then of-course the floor manager will defend his donkey by saying, "You mucked your hand by only placing one card across the line".
Perhaps a different Donkey-Dealer watches TV between dealing, talks to players about his weekend, and stares off into space for minutes at a time, thereby reducing your hands per hour from about 30 down to about 15. The number of hands you are dealt is critical to pushing up any kind of hourly-rate calculations. Getting one good starting hand every 15 to 17 hands with a donkey dealer means you get one winning starter-hand per hour instead of two.
To quote a dealer who also
plays poker, "We're all donkeys." I believe that to be true and here is why: If
we play poker, we are not valuing the effort and time it takes to earn a living,
and by that definition we do not value the money. If we, as players, fold out of
moderate hands due to giant bets placed by a donkey, we value the money too
much, and by considering the pot-odds too closely will muck those hands we would
have won with. If we call those big giant bets then we are not valuing the money
enough to follow the rules of pot-odds, and again we lose.
If you want to
play poker to win, don't play. If you want to play poker for fun, sit there and
toss away everything but high pairs, QQ,KK,AA or sometimes see a flop by limping
in with suited connectors. You will play one hand every thirty minutes and you
need a good flop to win. To me, that sounds boring. I've got so many better
things to do with my life.
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What do you do with too many victims? ActingSheriff Schwimer digs deep, exhumes the dead, and tracks down suspects. http://Tinyurl.com/TheKillersCoop .
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Anyone who says they are a "professional poker
player" is one of either 10 people on the planet, has major sponsors covering
their buy-in, or is lying to you and themselves. MOST likely they are losing in
the long term and they don't care. As a friend once told me, "My gunsafe is
filled with antiques that double in value every five years and I bought them all
with 30 years of drinking and gambling money - I don't drink and I don't
gamble."
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely that is 100% true. The "semi-professional" poker players who play to win refer to those people as donkeys. There's a pretty nasty undercurrent in the world of poker. I stopped playing this summer. I just don't really want to hang around with vile people. The dealer was more correct than anyone else I've ever heard. He was funny! "We're all donkeys." LOL!
ReplyDeleteOh, and I'll be deleting your spam from the end of the message.
ReplyDeleteholdem indicatorOctober 19, 2012 1:03 PM
Hi, I just wanted to tell you, you’re dead wrong. Your article doesn’t make any sense.
People are playing poker for their fun not for the money. If someone had the money and he/she wants to spend this money it their decision.